NCAA Tournie Bracket! College Hoops

I doubt I'm going to win it all in the pool, but I'm almost 70% right this year. I have the fever and the only prescription is more March Madness.

I called a lot of 12/5 upsets in the first round. The first round I had three errors in my bracket.
I had Wisconsin winning against Florida State. It was partly school pride, but mainly a judgment about experience. Wisconsin has been in the tournie consistently for years, and in a much better seed, and the last time Florida State was in it was 11 years ago. I figured player and coaching experience pays off in cases like that. Under that same logic, I don't think anyone saw Wake losing.

I have Louisville winning the whole magilla. They had a dream season. They're playing Michigan State today and I will root for teams in the Big Ten in circumstances like this even though it works against my grid. State has been stellar this season. Plus any team knows they're going to meet up with Louisville, so you have to do your homework on them. Louisville doesn't have that priviledge. I'm glad they've made it this far in the tournament.

I rooted for Wisconsin even though I had them losing to Xavier. I had Syracuse beating Okalahoma and I was way off on that one. Villanova upset Pittsburgh (which actually happened) to make it to the Final Four. So I'm not going to win money, but I am really enjoying the games.

South Side Irish Parade

This year was kind of out of hand. My friends and I have made it a bit of a tradition to go down and revel in being Irish (it's open to everyone). I know a lot of people who actually march in the parade. I have some friends who even work for Guinness / Diageo.
I have a copy of Mr Dooley In Peace and in War (1898). It was written about a South Side Irish Pub Keeper and it's a collection of short stories. I've met Mayor Daley and I know about the South Side Irish Tradition from that history.
The city and the community is frowning on the actions of a minority of the attendees, but I completely understand. I heard someone hit a cop... hit a cop at the So Side Irish Parade... That has to be the stupidest idea ever. A large part of this parade is about honoring the tradition and sacrifices of those officers. I remember after 911 they brought reps from the NYPD and NYFD through the parade. I talked to one of them for about an hour. I guess that really affects the way I look at the event. It has notes of solemn / somberness to me though the vast majority is the party.
Something needs to be done. I keep thinking about the Madison, WI and the riots we had with the Mifflin St Block Party and on Halloween. It occurred to me that they have the same key core component... drunk people and lots of them. I talked to everyone including organizers for Mardi Gras and major music festivals. I did research. The same principles can be applied to the South Side Irish Parade.
So anyway, I wrote a letter to the committee volunteering; offering my time and perspective. It's a unique role that I think I can help with. We'll see what happens there!

Conscious Alliance Benefit Wed 11.26.2008

A couple of friends and I are putting together a little benefit to stock up some local food banks! It's going to be a tough year and we want to pull our friends together, celebrate and bring some canned goods to some area shelters and programs!
Please help me get the word out about this worthy cause!

UW Football`

I just watched a performance in the first half which was very different from the second.
I'm unhappy. That's to say the least by the laissez-faire attitude of the defense in the second half and the impotence of my Badgers in the first! GRRRrrr... I feel like was just punched in the gut.
I do not agree with Brett B. on his call to send out the kicking team in a 4th and 2 with excellent field position when the average drive was over 4 yards. Let em burn a time out... then get the first down anyway! Give your team some credit and let them kill the opposing crowd. Loud crowds create false starts.
As to the last play... that's the last of my concerns. Illegal man down field. I couldn't care about that based off of all the other plays I fundamentally disagreed with based off of the team we're given. Play your team... know yourself, know your opponent and win every battle!

A Better Way... The Plan

If a separate market was created to sell these houses and the bad debt involved (bonds and insurance), then you can bring in private equity to pull out the debt. The markets feel like there is a deal out there.

There are models of how these markets work... ie. the stock market.

If the capital gains tax is lowered or suspended, a flood of liquidity would be created. That's not what us workin' class Joes want to hear, but its the truth. I agree with it fundamentally, and I think it should be added to the bill. I think this is worth 40 Republican votes. There are only 30 more needed for it to pass.

I do not believe a judge should be able to renegotiate mortgages so people can stay in their homes. There was a deal made. It was broken. I believe people involved should have their credit marked. It's a crime.

This is much shorter than the Fed's 3 page summary. The devil like everything is in the details.
I believe there should be a system of regulation of the market and checks and balances.

If it is the Fed's job to buy bad debt, then the public should be the major beneficiary of any resultant profit. The financial companies using the market should be penalized for their embarassing performance.

The Failure of the Current Plan

There is a great urgency of NOW! A few calmer heads really don't believe this is true.
This is a PANIC.
They believe that a stock crash is not emminent. Will the DOW have to dip in to 4 digits do it?
9999 or lower? We might see this today depending on how things go!
I don't believe Bush is an expert on the economy. None of the presidential candidates have a PhD in the subject. Paulson was a CEO for Goldman Sachs during the time that these bad loans were being made. He should know this was coming.
First, this should be an issue that takes months to plan out. Contingent plans must be made... and it seems that people involved in the system that created this mess knew it. I heard this "We (real estate finance) always knew that if this (lending / real estate end of the banking system) went down the government was going to bail us out." It was part of their plan. When they gave the investment banks the tools to be clearly deregulated and directed them to send money to impoverished neighborhoods, then they became mismanaged.
Nobody forced the consumers to take the money. That was their own mismanagement and lack of due diligence. I did not go out and take a ninja loan (NINJA: No Income No Job or Assets). Nothing in this legislation penalizes those who took risky behavior. The homeowners are considered victims, when the real victims are the ones who don't own a house. Evidently, because you made a bad decision in taking the loan, they are the victim, what about people like us who saved money where they could and now can't get a loan because of them. Should they be kicked out of their house and foreclosed against? Damn straight they should! They're not the victims. They were greedy, they participated in risky behavior. They should be marked and their credit should be stripped!
The only thing that keeps you in the grace of the banks is cash on the barrel head!
If you have the money, you're way better than those who are tied up in investments right now. Nobody knows what is going on or what to do. The only two things that are certain are death and taxes. The fundamentals are lost, they mean nothing now.
There needs to be a total revaluation. Houses aren't remotely worth what they say they're worth.
A $275,000 house built in Ft Myers Florida is selling for $125K. A house in Wrigleyville is selling for $799,000. These are assets that needs to be reevaluated. Each property is different and must be priced differently.
If a bank saw value in over pricing their assets because the government only paid $0.60 on the dollar, then they'll find assessors who do it. Assessors are part of the problem. They've been over assessing property values for years.
If we used the assessor price from the 1970s, we'd be a lot closer to the mark, but then a 500K house is only worth 150K in Wrigleyville. I would be fine with this, because then normal people with normal jobs can afford this house. If there were some benchmark to rate property values, then we'd be in the clear. An auction house would have seemed to have been the right move.
Question: Who has the capital to buy up all of these properties?
Answer: Consortiums that you mght not want to buy America. The Soverign Wealth Fund has already expressed blankly, that they are not interested in saving corporations and institutions in the United States, instead they are interested in property.

Fortune Investor Guide?

I was looking at Fortune Investor's Guide 2007: The 10 stocks to buy.
On their list is AIG. Wow, that was a good pick.
In the 2008 Guide they apologized and told you to buy Meryl Lynch!
Great picks guys.
A note to the investor... before making any decisions, you really need to be worried about where are you are getting your advice from. Do your due diligence.

A Second Day Rally?

I liken yesterday and today to a barbeque... The coals were right to do what I wanted to do (buy low when everyone was in gold)... and then the grill master (the government) came by stoked the coals and poured a ton of gas on the fire! There was a huge fireball and stocks soared.
Now the next thing for them to do is put their food on the grill... watch those buns Paulson!
So let's take a look at the menu, may as well know what they're up to:
As a starter, no more short selling:
http://www.sec.gov/rules/other/2008/34-58592.pdf
What does this mean? It means that if I think your stock is worthless and I go to a bank and say, "Good Morning, do you have any XXXX stock available for me to sell? I don't think it's going to be worth more money in the future." I can no longer do so in this fashion.
We vote everyday with our checkbooks. Why not our stocks?
Banning the shorts basically halts us from saying "that company over there sucks.
It's got bad fundamentals and their balance sheet is stretched and if the wind blows their whole house is going to fall because it's a house of cards!"

Call a duck a duck!
The reason why these financial companies are in trouble isn't the shorts its because they mismanaged their risk! Proper relative valuation was always in order! The system works! These stocks weren't in my portfolio!
I bought yesterday and I'm waiting for the bull run... then I and every other smart person is going to take some profit! The government plan can't be finalized with out a discussion and a vote. It's not going to happen by the end of the day... is it?

I see controversy in the making!
How much war and how much financial garbage can we fit on the Fed's balance sheet? If I were China or any of the myriad of countries that hold the US debt, should I be worried that the US government is printing their way out of this mess. Is this systemic risk of worldwide inflation?